MAS o Menos

The dogs of Queen Anne have been warned.

Last week, I brought the coffee group to a new venue.  The turnout was great and everyone seemed to have a great time.  Or so it seemed.  On Friday, I received the most angry vile email directed at me and the group from an employee of the place we went to.  Considering just 3 days ago in the post Tales From the Glitter Gym - Nonsense, I wrote “One of the biggest lessons I’ve learned in life is that we can’t control the actions of others - only our reactions to those actions.”, I was about to be tested.

Photo Defending the Doors of the Church by FLICKR user Ben McLeod

Phase 1

My first reaction was anger.  The email was a direct shot at me and full of lies.  When I go into a Seattle coffee shop I often get the Sinatra treatment.  To be attacked was new to me.  My angry feelings had me thinking about my connections in the city and how if I pushed it, I could make the writer of the email pay.  But I did not react.  I decided to chill for a few hours.

Phase 2

My second reaction was to go on the defense.  I could deflect the personal attacks and instead go point by point and present a defense for each charge.  But I did not react.  I decided to wait a few more hours.

Phase 3

My third reaction, after seeking council from a friend, was to take the bullet.  A general apology on behalf of the group might be enough to keep the peace.   Ignore the bitterness and respond with positivity.  But I did not react.  I decided to wait a few more hours.

Phase 4

My fourth reaction was a recognition that my attacker was unworthy of even a peaceful resolution.  You can’t win everyone over.  She clearly had anger issues that went beyond her job.  The coffee place we went to was not a top tier place, so avoiding it will be easy enough.  In the end, I decided to ignore the email and move on.

As I moved through each Phase, I started to feel better.  I’m almost glad I got the attack email.  It was a powerful learning exercise.  Long time readers of this site, who read my old blog Chicken Soup For the Rectum: A Web Log for the Unsympathetic Soul (2000-2004), are probably stunned with my peaceful response.  Maybe I’m getting too soft.

Tonight I was at Golden Gardens Park, which is a beach just north of Ballard.

For years I have dealt with all the stupidity at the Glitter Gym.  I go to the gym, see something stupid, bottle my rage, have a good workout and then come home to write a new edition of the Tales From the Glitter Gym.  It has worked well.  I get a good workout and my readers get an occasional chuckle.  Today I broke the pattern.

NOTE:  Before I begin this tale, I need to explain that I am a very nice person.  I get along with everyone.  You can cut me off in traffic and it won’t even phase me.  One of the biggest lessons I’ve learned in life is that we can’t control the actions of others - only our reactions to those actions.  As ZEN as I am outside the gym, I consciously do not follow “peace, love and happiness” when I’m in a gym.  In the post The Hate Workout, I explained how I focus rage onto the weights, the weights get lighter and I get stronger.

When I went into the free weight room, I saw a personal trainer and her client.  They had moved several benches to the side and were doing side bend stretches in front of the dumb bell racks.  They were blocking access to almost half the weight room.  I couldn’t believe was I seeing.  My blood started to boil.

I’ve seen inconsiderate behavior before at the gym, but this was the worst.  Almost the entire 2nd floor of my gym is an area where members can do stretching, yoga or whatever people do when they aren’t lifting weights.  That area is many times the size of the free weight room.  Yet this personal trainer decided to rearrange the heart of the free weight room to do stretching.

I snapped.

I took one look at the client and then stared at the trainer and in a voice I didn’t expect to be as loud as it came out, I said NONSENSE! I turned to the heavy dumb bells, grabbed a pair, did a set of incline presses making more noise that usual.  I slammed the weights down.

Photo Dumbbell is by FLICKR user Yaun2003

When I looked over, they were both gone.  They fled the free weight area and resumed their stretching on the other side of the room.  Wow. Did I discover the secret code for dealing with idiots at the gym?  Act like a crazy prisoner who just got access to the yard.

To drive the point home that their behavior was unacceptable and I might be unstable, I went over the area they vacated and started pulling all the benches back to their original location, all while dropping them into place.  I made a point to be as loud as possible.  I even threw their little half-Swiss Ball toy.  My acting was stellar.  I almost started laughing when I noticed the nervous looks on the other side of the gym.

It was the best workout I had in months and all I had to do was say NONSENSE.

In the post Irrational on the Way Up, Rational on the Way Down?, I touched on the psychology of would be home buyers that watch prices drop faster than they can save money.  Saving money and delaying purchase will become more and more popular.  Meanwhile the inventories of unsold homes will continue to increase.  Besides psychology and high home supply, there is another reason why home prices are going to fall further.  Lending is about to get very tight.

When I bought my first home in May 2001, all I needed was a 5% down payment.  I had saved enough money to put 10% down, but I didn’t need it.  And since I served 6 years in the Army National Guard, I was also eligible for some military program, but I didn’t need it.  The bank that under wrote my mortgage liked my credit score, salary and felt a 5% down payment protected them.

As real estate prices rose, the banks decided they no longer needed a 5% down payment.  If the underlying asset is appreciating at such a fast rate then - if the owner defaults -  they could always sell the house at a profit.

Then the banks got real stupid and started writing loans without proof of income.  They wanted the fees and again they could always resell the home at a profit if the owner defaulted, because real estate can only go up.  Right?  Wrong.

Well we know what happened next.  Waves of foreclosures and banks taking back properties they can not sell.  The inventory on the MLS is getting larger while the REO (bank owned) shadow inventory is growing at an even more rapid pace.  In a video earlier this year, Mr. Mortgage stated that 97.5% of all homes put up for sale at auction are being taken right back by the same bank - because the bids are too low.

The music will stop.  It already stopped for IndyMac.  Other banks will fail.  When they do, more inventory will be dumped onto the market.  But this post isn’t about inventory, it’s about lending.

Lending is about to get very tight.  Not a little, but a lot.  The days of 0% down are gone.  The days of 5% down for many markets will be gone as well.  Mr. Mortgage is reporting that Fannie/Freddie is moving to a 10% down payment requirement.

Requiring an extra 5% down in the hardest hit states will take many potential buyers out of the market. This would be yet another blow to fragile markets around the nation. Fannie and Freddie are handling some 75% of all loans in the US now and even a seemingly slight tightening of guidelines can have devastating effects.

10% down may be just the beginning.

We know savings are very low in this country right now.  Perhaps nearing an all time low.  Huge inventories + no savings + stricter down payment requirements = Big price reductions are coming. How will banks respond to underwriting mortgages when they underlying assets keep falling in value?  They will either ask for proof of a higher salary or more likely demand a higher down payment.  The bank will not want to be under water should you walk away from the home.  A larger down payment protects them should you decide to walk away.

Are we going back to the days of 20% down payments?  If we are, what kind of house can you afford?  The prices of homes today are based off the expectation of easy credit and low down payments.  What makes a $700,000 home worth $700,000?  Is it no proof of income and a 0% down payment?  Or is it 3x income with a 20% down payment?  Something needs to correct or this equation doesn’t work.  Prices have to come down.

I’ve said it before and I’m sure I’ll say it again.  In a deflationary environment, cash is king.  If you want to buy a house, save your money, because the bank may not loan you all you need.

In a few previous posts, I casually threw out the term stick boy.  Without thinking, I assumed everyone would understand that phrase.  Although I would love to take credit for the term, I first heard it from a co-worker back when I lived in Florida.  That employee referred to me as a stick boy.  He was built and I was scrawny.  I could have taken offense, but I didn’t. I knew he was right.  I needed to lift weights.

Johnny Webuser is by FLICKR user TomNatt

A stick boy is an adult male, usually an ectomorph, that is lean with no muscular development.  They often have the physique of a 12 year old girl: all arms and legs with no chest.  Seattle is the mecca for the stick boy. 

Stick boys can be in great shape.  They often excel at sports such as running, cycling and skiing, where being light and having long limbs is an advantage.  However, since the arms are long and the wrists are small, sports or exercises that require grip strength or moving weight are more challenging.

Image from How to Eat Right For Your Body Type by Dr. John Berardi. Typically Ectomorphs are taller and Endomorphs are shorter. Other than that this image is a good representation of somatypes.

I could have accepted my lot in life as a stick boy, but I hated it.  If you are a stick boy and want to do something about it, read the article I wrote titled Exercises For Ectomorphs.  Do those exercises, avoid alcohol, get plenty of rest and eat lots of protein and in a few years you too can become a former stick boy.

On Sunday I talked to several people that were resigned to the fact the summer was now over.  The school teachers would be heading back to work this week and the weather had started to cool.  On Monday we woke up to gray overcast skies and cool weather.  The party known as the Seattle summer appeared to be over.

Then around 1 PM, the skies cleared and the sun put on an all-star performance for the rest of the day.  This post isn’t about weather.  I hate talking about the weather.  This post is about the reaction I saw around Seattle once the sun came back.

People went nuts.  It was like after a concert ends and you are heading back to your car, when all of a sudden the band gets back on stage and plays a 2nd encore.  I was all over Seattle yesterday giving a city tour.  Queen Anne, Fremont, Ballard, University, Pike Market, Greenlake and even the airport.   The morning streets were mostly empty with overdressed citizens resigned to the coming autumn.  By the time lunch was over, the party was back on.  People were practically high-fiving strangers in the street.

When I lived in San Diego or Tampa Bay there was no driving motivation to get out and enjoy each day, because tommorow would look the same.  You get numb to perfect weather and fail to appreciate each day.  The people of Seattle appreciated yesterday.

INeedCoffee has put out new content every month since April 1999.  Here are the latest contributions.

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I did a night time stroll around Queen Anne tonight and tried to get some decent photos.  The “Night Snapshot” mode on the Canon SD800 Elph actually was throwing out a flash.  Fail.  Then I went to manual mode and used ledges to mimic a real tripod.  The pictures got a little better.  I think I need a real tripod or a better camera or both.

Not to be confused with the famous truck in Fremont, this car was featured at an art exhibit in Queen Anne last Sunday.

Photo gallery for Funky Car in Queen Anne